How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned negotiations on the almost four-year conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.

Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
  • Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results

The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia done," he said.

However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.

Combine the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's meeting in August produced no concrete results.

Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.

The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.

"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Kurt Thornton
Kurt Thornton

A passionate card game strategist and writer, sharing expert tips and engaging stories to enhance your gaming experience.